Capacity Market Supplier Demand Forecast

By 1st June in any year, energy suppliers are required to provide a forecast of their gross demand for the period of high demand (Peak Period) for the relevant delivery year.

The forecast is used to calculate a supplier’s monthly capacity market supplier charge and monthly credit cover requirements.

As payments start before actual metered data is available, the charge (and suppliers’ credit cover requirements) is provisionally calculated using suppliers’ demand forecasts. This forecast is replaced by metered data once it is available for the whole peak period.

The supplier capacity market demand forecast template includes:

• A supplier’s gross demand for the peak period for the last two years and the percentage change between the two;
• The total gross demand for all suppliers for the peak period for the previous year and the supplier’s share of this;
• A forecast of the gross demand for the upcoming peak period;
• A commentary box for the energy supplier to document assumptions and explanations of its forecasts.

The forecast should be:

• In MWh, up to three decimal places;
• provided for settlement periods between 4pm-7pm on working days only between November and February;
• gross demand should be adjusted for distribution and transmission losses and submitted for each legal entity.

EMR Settlements (EMRS) will carry out process checks on all submitted forecasts and seek clarification from an energy supplier when a forecast falls outside a set tolerance.