Blog Post

World Energy Outlook 2020: The Key points for Energy Suppliers

Richard Simmonds • Oct 14, 2020

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has released its latest report on the state of energy markets and demand across the globe. We take a look at some of the key points that energy suppliers should be aware of.

The impacts of Covid-19 pandemic

According to the World Energy Outlook 2020 report, the Covid-19 pandemic has introduced new uncertainties for the energy supply sector and global energy industries as a whole. 

The uncertainty as to when (if ever) the virus will be eradicated or when an effective vaccine will be introduced has negatively impacted earlier hopes of a strong economic recovery. 

In the UK, new strict lockdown measures are being imposed as the number of hospitalisations increases. These measures are delivering terrible consequences to many businesses that have already sustained a battering by the full national lockdown imposed in March.

The report details that global energy demand in 2020 is 5% lower than what was seen in 2019 as the lockdowns saw industry and businesses grind to a halt. 

This decline in demand and the increasing uncertainty for many businesses has increased the risk of customers defaulting on paying their energy bills, something that will negatively impact many energy suppliers.

On a global scale, capital investment in the energy sector is forecast to tumble by 18% in 2020 with the biggest decline in spending being on the oil and gas supply. 

Such a decline in investment is likely to ripple through the sector for years to come even with economic pressures reducing demand.

One positive for those pushing for lower Carbon emissions of this lower demand is that fossil fuels have borne the brunt of this fall in demand. Overall CO2 emissions are predicted to have declined 7% over this year.


Energy Network challenges

The outlook report highlights that electricity grids are likely to be the weak link when it comes to the transformation of the energy sector. With many nations including the UK pushing for NetZero, the infrastructure and investment needed are staggering.


The Covid-19 pandemic has harmed the financial health of many economies and the report warns that these NetZero goals may have to be pushed back as governments focus on rebuilding their economies.


The financial health of energy suppliers is also highlighted as a concern as the economic fallout of the pandemic puts ever increasing strain on their bank balances.


These economic pressures are likely to result in a disparity between the spending required to introduce smart, digital, and flexible electricity networks and the necessary infrastructure.


As if to highlight the current argument raging between Ofgem and energy network companies in the UK the report says:


“There is a disparity in many countries between the spending required for smart, digital and flexible electricity networks and the revenues available to grid operators, creating a risk to the adequacy of investment under today’s regulatory structures”


Also read: Lack of investment could lead to Blackouts warns National Grid CEO


Solar is now the cheapest form of renewable energy

The report also lists its predictions and estimates for the costs of different electricity generation technologies.


Solar energy was shown to now be 20-50% cheaper today then it was in last years report as a result of increased investment, more efficient technology, and improved regulations to reduce the risk of renewable investment towards it.


The report also highlights large reductions in the estimated costs for onshore and offshore wind.


Also read: Ofgem to increase monitoring of Renewable Energy Guarantees of Origin (Rego) certificates following Times Investigation


Future Forecast

The IEA forecasts that global energy demand will not return to pre-Covid levels until 2023 at the earliest but warns that if the pandemic drags on this may not occur until 2025.


Before the pandemic, global energy demand was predicted to grow by 12% between 2019 and 2030 but now this is expected to be 9%. Demand in advanced economies is forecast to decline but grow in emerging economies such as India.


This economic challenges created by Covid-19 will also see incomes decline resulting in fewer products such as electric cars being purchased and more energy supplier customers struggling to pay their energy bills. 

Further Reading

As Winter approaches three million households are in Energy Bill debt to Energy Suppliers


Covid-19 fallout likely to see consumers needing government help to pay their energy bills this winter warns Ovo Energy chief


Majority of UK public unwilling to pay higher energy bills to achieve NetZero carbon emissions target


Dyball Associates are proud to help new supply businesses successfully launch in the UK market.

 

Through our energy market consultancy services, and the software we’ve developed, we’re supporting new UK electricity and gas suppliers get set up and start supplying.

 

For more information on how to start and manage an energy company, get in touch with Dyball Associates today.


More articles

Latest News

White label
By Richard Simmonds 24 Nov, 2021
We take a look at white labelling and why it could be a good source of revenue for your business.
dim bulb
By Richard Simmonds 23 Nov, 2021
The ongoing energy crisis has claimed its biggest victim as the UK’s seventh largest energy supplier, Bulb announced that it has entered administration.
investigate
By Richard Simmonds 22 Nov, 2021
Two of the UK’s largest energy supply companies could be investigated by Ofgem and possibly face fines of up to 10% of their revenue after being accused of breaching price cap rules by overcharging customers by hundreds of pounds.
More Posts
Share by: