Covid-19 forecast to dampen Energy demand throughout the Summer says new forecast
National Grid ESO has released its Summer Outlook which predicts that energy demand throughout the summer of 2021 will remain low despite a predicted resurgence in the economy following the end of the third national lockdown.
Covid-19 to continue to weigh on demand
According to the outlook the average electricity demand over the warmer summer months is expected to be 17.2GW during the nights, 20.1GW during the day and hit a summer peak of 32GW.
These numbers will be below the averages seen before the Covid-19 pandemic as uncertainty over how the virus will spread and how the government will respond over the next few months will likely keep demand down. In short minimum energy, demands are expected to be low again in 2021.
A bright point for energy suppliers is that 2021’s demand will be higher than that seen in 2020 where the summer minimum was recorded as 16.2GW.
With the nation currently on track for what Prime Minister Boris Johnson has said will be the ‘cautious but irreversible’ unlocking of the economy by June energy demand will likely be closer to 2019 levels than 2020s.
During the first national lockdown, in the spring and early summer months, minimum electricity demand fell as much as 17% compared with pre-pandemic expectations.
“While there remains a degree of uncertainty around COVID-19 and the associated impact on demand, summer 2021 is not expected to be as operationally challenging as spring/summer 2020 and we expect that the necessary tools will be in place to enable safe, reliable, efficient system operation,” National Grid ESO said.
Also read: Energy Price Forecast 2021: Covid-19, Brexit and much more
Gas Outlook
National Grid also released its summer outlook for gas usage where it predicts that demand will be around 32.4 billion cubic meters, a figure lower than the 32.5 billion cubic meters recorded during the summer months of 2020.
The main driver for this reduction is the reduction in the amount of electricity generated by gas power plants.
Overall volumes of the amount of liquified natural gas are also forecast to be lower compared to 2020 and 2019 respectively due to increasing competition in global markets but the amount being provided by pipelines from Norway will be higher.
Energy Price forecast
With the lockdowns easing and demand for electricity and gas set to rise as a result overall wholesale prices are likely to remain higher than those seen in 2020.
However, smaller energy suppliers can continue to compete with the larger players by offering lower tariffs and offering better customer service.
Energy bills will likely rise for many consumers due to the introduction of the increased energy price cap that came into effect on April 1st and as homeworkers continue to spend more time indoors with more devices plugged in, heating on and overall household consumption up.
Whether you’re looking for electricity and gas systems or support on starting an energy supply company, Dyball Associates Ltd can help.
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